A placeholder site for some letters commemorating good economic and financial calls I made in the process of reaching out to family, friends and associates over a five year period or so (during and right after college).
I'd like to follow this up w/ a book or something. Once my career gets going I'll spend some free time putting some cohesive thoughts on virtual paper around all this ibanking and central banking and other financial and economic stuff. It should be interesting for a few eggheads. But that's my intended audience.
My view was that dangerously low personal savings rates in the wider economy were provoking financial collapse and the letter was meant to serve as a warning.
Fed rate decisions' effect on my future as I saw it then and an allusion to my view of the global economic situation at the time - i.e., that cheap credit would continue to spur home price appreciation and sales, that the market would continue to 'burn hot' etc. Home prices continued to appreciate and home building and sales continued to increase until the first quarter of 2006.
A seminal piece in which I prognosticated, in fairly precise detail and in no uncertain terms, a market collapse due to a phenomenon coined by political economists as 'financial repression'.
Levied the concept of velocity of money (in context of financial repression) to explain forces underpinning what I referred to then as the inexorable force of a 'recessionary trend'. According to NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), the arbiter of when recessions officially begin and end, our most recent recession began in December of 2007.
A description of the monetary system and how it is used by the Chinese to run an export-driven economy vis-a-vis cheap lending on borrowed interest, a detailed account of risks to which the global economy was exposed due to aforesaid trade regime.
A critique of Bill O'Reilly's article: Oil and Trouble, an indictment of big corporations and OPEC in the summer of 2008 when gas prices were nearly four dollars a gallon. I suggested that the economics behind gas prices could explain more than the conspiracies posited by Mr. O'Reilly. Furthermore, that the gas prices were a direct result of our own activities with respect to budgetary concerns and the like. Monetary inflation is a prevailing theme here, if only as an undercurrent, in similar fashion to most every one of my economic letters. Gas prices declined precipitously following the summer of 2008 based [if not entirely] on economic forces (as opposed to political ones).
A memorialized account of the roots of our recent financial crisis the crescendo of which apparently occurred in the fourth quarter of 2008 when some of the world's largest banks imploded and the government had to take Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae into conservatorship. This is in context of present budgetary decisions led by a big-government democrat executive and congress.
fb where i've been active since these letters
linkedin where my professional stuff is
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